The Next 50 Years of Public Relations
By Fred Cook, President & CEO, GolinHarris
fcook@golinharris.com

As GolinHarris celebrates its 50th anniversary, we decided to look into the future. To better understand the issues facing our company and our clients it was best to look at the next 50 years.

We conducted extensive research and identified a few trends that we feel will have a major impact on society, consumers and companies. Here is our take on a few of them.

GLOBALIZATION

Globalization, the first of these trends, is at the center of this changing world. All businesses are dealing with the reality that the universe is shrinking. Brands are universal. Time zones are meaningless. Go global or go home!

As companies look to compete globally, outsourcing will become common practice in the coming years. According to Forrester Research, at least 3.3 million white-collar jobs and $136 billion in wages will shift from the U.S. to low-cost countries like India, China and Russia by 2015. Many of these will be white-collar jobs. In fact, some insurance companies are already sending heart patients to India for less expensive surgery. As every major company expands into Shanghai, Mumbai and Warsaw, the PR industry is customizing communications tools for those markets. But the global marketplace is complex.

Barriers to business are at an all time low, but cultural sensitivities have never been higher. Experienced marketers will continue to adapt American consumerism to fit new territories. But in regions like the Middle East and Asia, cultural differences can present huge hurdles for U.S. brands, as seen by the controversial introductions of Rolling Stone magazine into China and Playboy into Indonesia. The same issues apply to foreign companies like Dubai Ports World and the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), whose attempts to enter the U.S. market were greeted with a firestorm of criticism. The reaction in the Muslim world to the Pope's recent comments highlighted the world's current cultural divide.

Moving forward, effective international communication will require more than reach. It will demand local sensitivity. It will be the "glocal" brands that will succeed in the era of globalization - companies that understand local behaviors and preferences.

MULTICULTURALISM

A second, very important trend is unfolding inside the U.S. - multiculturalism. Buoyed by higher birthrates and increasing immigration, minorities will comprise one-third of the U.S. population by 2016.

Every business has to consider the impact and opportunity of a rapidly expanding Hispanic population. The census bureau predicts that by 2050 one in every four Americans will be of Latino ancestry. In Los Angeles, that number is already one-in-two. Hispanics represent both the fastest-growing and largest minority group in the U.S. By 2020, they will represent one-half of the growth of the U.S. workforce. The recent U.S. elections are just a preview of this diverse group's future power and influence. Exit polls show that Republican candidates won only 30% of the Hispanic vote - the fastest-growing segment of the electorate - while Democrats garnered 69%.

But the cultural shift won't be limited to Hispanics. America will likely see an African American president within 20 years, and Asians, the second-fastest growing ethnic group, will become increasingly influential in American society and business. Already there are 635 Asian media outlets in the U.S. and that number expands daily. In the next 50 years, the minority will become the majority. Multiculturalism will be mainstream.

Multiculturalism is not only an American phenomenon. In Dubai, 80% of the population is made up of foreigners who are contributing to the growth and development of that thriving country. In the future, European nations will rely on immigration to help counteract their declining populations, which according to Eurostat are expected to fall from 461 to 450 million in the next 50 years. But growing minority populations can create cultural clashes, as we have recently seen in France where, according to some estimates, one quarter of the population will be Muslim by 2030.

We are experiencing a "cultural fusion." Globalization and multiculturalism are rapidly merging diverse cultures into a blend that will impact every aspect of society, including music, movies, food, fashion, and of course business. This seismic shift will transform communication. It will not be enough to address emerging cultures by simply creating separate practices to focus on individual ethnic groups. In the coming decades, the current ethnocentric approach to public relations will be replaced by a more holistic perspective. Future PR professionals will understand the differences and sensitivities of different cultures - because they will be part of them. Around the globe, an increasing number of young multinationals will join the profession, mirroring the diversity of the world they live in.

LONGEVITY

There is another demographic group that deserves special attention. Currently in the U.S., there are some 80 million Baby Boomers. In China, there are 343 million. By 2020, the Centre for Aging in London estimates that there will be nearly 700 million individuals in the world that are over 65 years of age. By 2050, 35% of Germany's population and 42% of Japan's will be over the age of 60. It will be interesting to see how these efficient societies manage the issues associated with an aging society.

The longevity of this age group represents a global business opportunity and a corresponding social challenge. This year, 330 American Boomers will reach age 60 - every minute - all year long. On the average, they will live to be 77. In another 20 years, life expectancy may surpass 80 years. In 50 years, it could be 85.

Smart marketers are awakening to the enormous buying power of this older consumer, whose home equity alone exceeds $3.5 trillion. The changing needs and priorities of the "Zoomer" generation, which expects to jog into the afterlife, will drive demand for products and information tailored to their unique lifestyles, which are centered around travel, entertainment and wellness. In fact, Baby Boomers purchase 45% of the world's digital cameras. Why? To take pictures of their vacations and their grandchildren.



But all Boomers aren't wealthy. In fact, in many developing economies they are the poorest segments of society. By 2050, worldwide healthcare costs will double. And in rural China, almost 80% of the population has no health insurance.

Governments alone can't solve all the issues related to this demographic explosion. Business will have to help. In 2030, there will be two workers paying into U.S. Social Security for every one beneficiary, compared to seven-to-one when it was created. By 2050, global healthcare costs are expected to double. What will retirements look like? Who will pay for them? What amount of public resources are appropriate to prolong life? Who gets to decide?


The answers to these questions will have a huge impact on the health care industry and on every organization with retired workers, like General Motors, which has three times as many retirees as employees. Issues related to longevity will dominate political campaigns and public policies for the foreseeable future. The leaders of the PR industry, most of whom are part of this aging generation, should play a major role in addressing them.

THE CONNECTED CONSUMER
These societal trends are emerging amidst an earthquake of change for the individual. Technology, of course, is playing a major role. There is no question that the world is becoming fully digitized. In 2005, worldwide computer sales reached one billion, and it took 30 years to get there. It will take only three years to sell the next billion. And by 2007 that same number will be connected to the Internet. Consumers worldwide purchased over 800 million cell phones in 2005, bringing the installed base to two billion. China boasts the world's biggest number of subscribers at 350 million, which is expected to grow to 600 million by 2009. 50 million PDAs are in use right now and that number is growing at a compounded annual rate of 40%. Globally, Apple has sold 40 million iPods, which analysts predict is only 10% of future sales. These are the devices that will carry the messages of the future.

Along with the rise of technology comes the rise of convergence. Today a cell phone can be used for text messaging, emailing, couponing, taking pictures, playing games, surfing the Web, downloading songs and scanning barcodes. In Asia, Muslims are using mobile phones to indicate the direction of Mecca and send them prayer alerts five times a day. While in India, worshipers can send text messages to the temple of the Hindu god Ganesh. In three years, 210 million people worldwide will watch television on their handsets. By 2011, 25 million Americans will swipe them instead of credit cards.

Broadband will lead the way to a future where data, voice and video, from a single provider, will converge on a single platform. By the end of this year, more than half of American homes will have broadband. By 2010, there will be 500 million subscribers worldwide, 50% of them will be living in Asia Pacific.

The most significant convergence is expected to be Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP). According to ZDNet Research, the number of residential VoIP subscribers worldwide is expected to increase to 151.2 million by 2010, an annual growth of 57% from 2005. A perfect example is Skype, an internet phone service that in three years has gained 100 million users worldwide, permitting free long-distance calling from PC to PC. Available in 27 languages and used in almost every country around the world, Skype is developing a cult following much like Google, where users say, "Let's Skype."

Anyone who lives with a student beyond fifth grade knows that 75% of today's teens communicate by instant messaging. And a quarter of those say they choose to "IM" their friends - even if they're sitting in the same room.

The appeal of being "always on" isn't the importance of what's being said. It's just being "always on." Millennials, born after 1980, worry that "if I turn off my phone and don't check my email, I won't exist."

Future marketers will need to be as conversant with the medium as they are with the message, and they will need to leverage every channel to effectively reach their multi-tasking audience.

Tomorrow's savvy customers are coalescing at an unprecedented rate in a new world of social networking. Gen X is history. Gen Y is passé. Today, it's all about generation MySpace.

Consider this: 100 million people around the world have set up their own personal pages on MySpace in just two years time. The site reportedly attracts new registrations at a rate of 230,000 per day, and is the fastest growing site on Google, with more page views than eBay. Membership is expanding by five million a month. In 10 years, MySpace could easily be one billion strong, which explains why marketers like Nintendo and Disney are using it to launch new products. By 2010, eMarketer estimates, ad spending on social networking sites alone will hit $2.15 billion.

NEW ACTIVISM
Growing alongside new media is another trend -- new activism. Its clearest manifestation is the rise of non-governmental organizations or NGOs. According to a UN report, there are nearly 40,000 international NGOs, and even more national ones. More than two million currently operate in the U.S., most starting in the last 30 years. By the middle of this century that number could double.

As tight budgets force a retreat by governmental agencies from many corners of the public arena, NGOs are more than ready to jump into the breach - many driven by their own non-negotiable social, political or religious agendas. They are growing in power and they have the tools to change the equation. If a company feels wronged by a newspaper or TV station, it can always threaten to pull its ads. Try that with a blog. Look at what "Free Republic," a conservative internet forum, did to Dan Rather and CBS. How about what "Smoking Gun" did to Oprah and her endorsement of James Frey's "A Million Little Pieces?"

There are no secrets in this brave new world. But it isn't big brother that is watching. It's the people. Every activist group, no matter how small, has the weapons in hand to attack a major corporation and sometimes bring it to its knees. Insight and experience dealing with NGOs will be a valuable asset in the protection of corporate reputation. It will no longer be enough for companies to simply inform activist groups about what they are doing. In the future, they will have no choice but to engage them in the process.



AUTHENTICITY
Despite the dramatic changes in demographics and technology, there is one overriding constant - the human element. As the world becomes more complex, more diverse and more connected it also becomes more human. More real. This points to the most important trend of all. It's permeating our culture and changing our business. The trend, in a word, is authenticity.

Last Fall, a study conducted by Yankelovich found a near-universal disgust with the quality of all types of leadership in America. People are fed up with politicians, business, religious and charitable leaders and particularly, journalists. 64% said our leaders have been corrupted, simply by being in power. 73% said leaders are out of touch with the average person.

People are demanding authenticity. You can see this in their choice of entertainment. Years ago, Hollywood never would have supported films like Super Size Me, Grizzly Man, March of the Penguins, or a low-budget documentary like An Inconvenient Truth. But they became hits because enough people declared them authentic. And, while Taylor Hicks and Kelly Clarkson may not be the most talented singers in the world, more people voted for the 2006 season finale of American Idol than they did for the 2004 U.S. Presidential election. In fact, Super Girl, the Chinese version of this popular TV show, draws a viewing and voting audience of 400 million!

On the Internet people are looking beyond the established sources to get information. Five out of the top 10 websites are based on consumer-generated content. Wikipedia is the #1 online reference destination with 67,000 active contributors working on more than 4.6 million articles in more than 100 languages.

The most talked about advertising campaign this year was Dove's "Real Beauty," which featured very authentic women.

We're at the dawn of an era where people want authentic stories about authentic people. And PR people are the storytellers. It's our job to help find the authenticity at the core of our companies and clients, and tell those stories to the world in real words that will really be heard.